A rigorous, plain-language framework for deciding *when* to enter and exit a trade, built around a single formula for the minimum confidence that justifies action once trading costs, calibrated probabilities, and the risk of self-deception are all accounted for.

An interactive tutorial on why gold moves with real interest rates and the dollar — opportunity cost, real rates, and DXY, with live sliders and charts.

Tests whether the modern economy entered a new regime after 1971 — structural breaks in productivity vs wages, inflation, debt, and the monetary order, with live charts from bundled FRED data.