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newsMostly Private: Your Email Now Has a Vault
You can now lock your email address in a vault that only you can open. The server keeps a fingerprint, not the address — so it cannot leak, sell, or hand over what it never knew. Login and password reset keep working; nobody at the other end knows who you are.
Martin Russmann Sep 09, 2026
newsThe Forecasting Agent Now Predicts in Differences
Seven upgrades close the gap between observing changes and predicting them: recency-decayed attention, honest seasonal measurement, machine-gradable change claims, a slow-macro belief channel, structured divergence watching, and change sensors for the fast reflex — all behind measured adoption gates.
Martin Russmann Aug 25, 2026
newsFour Apps, One Site: Installing Macropoiesis on Your Home Screen
The Tribune, Live, My Stocks and Portfolios now each install as their own home-screen app that opens straight to that page, instead of every install landing on the start page. Plus a type filter for the blog.
Martin Russmann Aug 25, 2026
articleFrom Context-Aware to Context-Conditioned: Why I Rebuilt the RSI Framework
The June Context-Aware RSI framework had a structural flaw: two mechanisms answering the same question, and an untested assumption underneath both. Its replacement separates measurement, context, and inference, derives its thresholds from one probabilistic model instead of seven hand-set parameters, and is now live beside its predecessor — including the validation report that says it has not yet earned the cutover.
Martin Russmann Aug 25, 2026
articleWhat If: We Built a Time Machine, but Only for Your Portfolio
Macropoiesis now has virtual portfolios: copy your real one, go back in time, make the trades you swear you almost made, and let the replay engine calculate exactly how right you would have been. A feature announcement, and a public-health warning.
Martin Russmann Aug 23, 2026
articleForeign Press Review: What the Rest of the World Is Reading This Morning
A daily review of roughly two dozen English-language newspapers outside the US and EU, across five regions, with state-media and ownership disclosure built into the byline.
Martin Russmann Aug 20, 2026
interactiveA Random Walk Down Wall Street: Interactive Tutorial
Can you distinguish a real market chart from simulated noise? Explore random walks through games, diagnostics, portfolio experiments, and historical bubbles.
Aug 13, 2026
articleThe Organizing Dimensions: Aligning a Forecasting Agent with a Multidimensional World
Third in the Prediction Mind series. A multidimensional geometry — three coordinates of state, one of time, and two organizing dimensions — turns out to be an uncomfortably good checklist for a forecasting agent. Auditing the deliberative system against it produced six mechanisms: a per-entity organization coordinate, a condensation threshold for thinking, one selection principle where three had grown, entropy-modulated regime persistence, a world model made of discrete cells, and a channel through which beliefs finally flow downward into behavior. None of it ships on the strength of the metaphor: the metaphor names, the prequential record decides.
Martin Russmann Jul 15, 2026
articleThe Change-Field: Why a Forecasting Agent's World Model Observes Differences, Not Levels
A follow-up to the S-System article, one level deeper: the deliberative system's world model represents the world as a field of differences — velocity and acceleration, each z-scored against a series' own history — and an audit of the design against its own principle closed three gaps: a surprise component still watching level signs, a regime Bayes filter blind to the second derivative, and a measurement model that graded itself nightly but never learned from the grade. Every fix ships behind a prequential adopt-guard.
Martin Russmann Jul 15, 2026
articleThe S-System Design: A Dual-Process Architecture for a Self-Auditing Forecasting Agent
Prediction Mind is a small autonomous agent that forecasts financial markets. The domain is incidental. This article describes the architecture — three loosely coupled systems for reaction, deliberation, and self-monitoring — and the design invariants that recur at every level: budgeted inference, proof-gated self-modification, and health that is observed, never asserted.
Martin Russmann Jul 11, 2026
paperA Geometric Framework for Macroeconomic Analysis
This paper proposes discrete Ricci curvature on financial correlation networks as a geometric indicator of systemic fragility. The framework conceptualizes the economy as a differentiable manifold equipped with a Riemannian metric, where curvature encodes whether small perturbations self-correct (positive curvature) or self-amplify (negative curvature). Building on Mach's relational ontology and Einstein's geometrization program, a testable hypothesis is derived: aggregate network curvature is associated with financial stress and serves as an indicator of systemic fragility. Dimensional homogeneity is addressed through non-dimensionalization, candidate conservation principles are proposed, and a complete worked example is provided. The relationship between continuum curvature of the state manifold and discrete curvature of correlation networks is clarified against prior empirical findings. An implementation architecture enables empirical validation. The framework is offered as a research program rather than a finished theory.
Martin Russmann Jun 26, 2026
paperContext Aware RSI
This design proposal presents a framework for enhancing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) by incorporating macroeconomic liquidity conditions and market sentiment. The traditional RSI, while widely used, suffers from well-documented limitations including false signals during trending markets and fixed thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions. The core design principle is to preserve the canonical RSI scale [0,100] while adapting interpretation through dynamic thresholds and conditional normalization, maintaining interpretability for practitioners familiar with traditional RSI while systematically accounting for the external factors --- global liquidity and news sentiment --- that influence asset prices.
Martin Russmann Jun 26, 2026
paperBeyond Point Estimates
Equity valuation is often implemented as a deterministic pipeline: select point inputs, compute a discounted cash flow (DCF) number, and compare it to market price. This design hides uncertainty, makes model risk difficult to quantify, and encourages overconfident decisions under regime shifts. The point estimate is the problem; the distribution is the deliverable. This working paper specifies an alternative from first principles: a valuation pipeline that produces \emph{probability distributions} over enterprise value and connects those distributions to \emph{explicit decision policies}. Cash flows are modeled as strictly positive stochastic processes on their natural support, the perpetuity constraint $r>g_{\mathrm{term}}$ is enforced without distorting the dependence structure, growth and discount-rate components are coupled through a heavy-tailed copula, and a two-level Monte Carlo design separates path-level variability from parameter (model) risk. The evaluation target is neither a single accuracy number nor the unobservable intrinsic value itself: a \emph{convergence model} maps the valuation gap to realized excess returns, and the framework is falsified if the estimated convergence speed is indistinguishable from zero.
Martin Russmann Jun 26, 2026
articleThe Arithmetic of When
A rigorous, plain-language framework for deciding *when* to enter and exit a trade, built around a single formula for the minimum confidence that justifies action once trading costs, calibrated probabilities, and the risk of self-deception are all accounted for.
Martin Russmann Jun 25, 2026
interactiveWhy Gold Moves: An Interactive Tutorial
An interactive tutorial on why gold moves with real interest rates and the dollar — opportunity cost, real rates, and DXY, with live sliders and charts.
Mar 19, 2026
interactiveThe 1971 Hypothesis
Tests whether the modern economy entered a new regime after 1971 — structural breaks in productivity vs wages, inflation, debt, and the monetary order, with live charts from bundled FRED data.
Feb 02, 2026